This week we will discuss the project of developing a clearer picture of the world and improving our thinking both for ourselves and our work. We’ll evaluate the argument for why this might be important, look at some reasons to be excited about the project, and look at some next steps.
The project of Effective Altruism is one that tries to get a clearer picture of the world in order to take actions which would improve it. Questions like “How many animals are suffering right now?”, “Which countries' culture is most likely to spread to others over the next 50 years such that efforts there will be multiplied”, and “How much can I reduce the chance of existential catastrophe this century” are questions about the world and what happens within it - rather than the questions about values we discussed last week. Getting as close to truth as possible for these questions is essential for figuring out how to actually have the impact we’re aiming for. If you need to decide which country to run a corporate cage-free campaign you need to ask questions like: “Which country has the most caged chickens?”, “Which countries companies are the most amenable to campaigning?”, “How much does it cost to run a campaign in this country?”.
But these questions are hard*.* Not only are we facing incredibly difficult questions but also people are plagued with bias, predictably overconfident, and prone to groupthink. There are also people who are systematically under confident and shy away from making guesses, for fear of being wrong. However there are people who have developed an impressive track record when predicting what will happen in the world. If they could overcome their biases and improve their thinking, maybe we can too.
Developing your thinking can also be incredibly exciting! The reading this week includes stories and examples from a few EAs who worked on developing this skill and found it both rewarding and incredibly valuable when doing good. We’ve also included some useful next steps and will take the time in the session to discuss the merits and failings of each suggestion, as well as the personal relevance for you.
We also include an exercise this week focussed on journaling and noticing our thought processes and biases. It’s often difficult to go from hearing a bias or mode of thinking described to noticing it within yourself, but we think this may be the most important step in improving your thinking. It’s hard to check yourself for these biases in the moment so it is useful to practice noticing, reflecting, and talking about it with others.
One way to start building good habits when evaluating tough questions is to journal about your thought processes. Often it takes writing down a thought to get better at noticing modes of thinking you'd rather avoid and pulling out practices you'd like to encourage. In doing the journaling and prediction exercises below the hope is you might notice a few trends in your thinking that bias you one way or another, or a common mistake that you can correct for.
Once a day for the week leading up to your session open up a document or notepad and write down your thought on whichever of these prompts seem the most interesting to you (this might change day to day)